Den hollandsk baserede organisation Indus Corporation ( http://www.induscorp.nl/ )har netop udsendt sin foreløbige og usædvanlige dystre rapport om klodens tilstand og vores naturgivne ressourcer.I management summary fremgår det, at vi får de vigtigste råstoffer har paceret 'peak' og vi nu må indstille os på en stadig mere problematisk fremtid.
"The size of the World population we cannot steer.The prosperity demand of the World population we cannot steer. The size of the natural resources we cannot steer. The facets we can steer are technology, organizational model, production processes and capital. And as a World Community we are good in all four.
Very good. We need renewable energy capacity, both remote and
domestic. We need financial structures these changes and investments."
I noten fra Induscorp skriver de:
Soren,
Hereby I send you a (pre-publishing) copy of Global Resources Analysis (more specific: Volume I - Situation 2008). To describe the whole report in an one long nutshell line: more people on earth, more purchase power on earth, less energy on earth, less resources on earth, higher prices for everything everywhere, negative economic growth in the whole Western World, lower economic growth in the Emerging World and higher economic growth in the energy and commodities surplus nations of Former USSR, Middle East and Africa.
Demand up, supply down: prices up. This in a time where the oil prices are around/above $ 120 (even in the traditional due less demand by low oil prices characterised month May), CNN's her main themes are the Global Food Crisis, the Global Energy Crisis and the Global Credit Crisis and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon have said that the world must urgently increase food production to ease sky-rocking prices and that he is pledged to set up a task force for this (link to article on www.bloomberg.com).
Also in a time where politicians doesn't really understand the energy situation yet: Senator Clinton thinks that there is an energy complot set up by the BigFive (but Exxon for example only controls 3% of global production). Senator McCain thinks that giving a fuel tax holiday will turn global energy markets around (more demand, will give lower prices?). Both republicans and democrats (but also leaders in other nations) don't understand that's there is a global energy crisis growing in a very fast speed. The nations in Emerging Markets has worked last years themselves to their place in the economical sun and this accelerate the global energy demand severely. Demand that (more and more) simple outstrips the declining global supply. The oil demand of 'the old world' simple doesn't effect prices anymore as it did: these days the demand out of the new world dictates the prices, and they have the money to buy it.
The leaders of the new energy surplus nations starts to understand the consequences of the energy crisis. The leaders of the old energy deficit nations don't understand it yet. When oil majors by oil price levels of above $ 100, their mega profits earned by these high prices spend on re-purchasing own stock instead of investing it in new oil exploration, you know something is going on. The founding family of Exxon has last week critized the Exxon board on this (link to article on www.ft.com) with the message: if oil is running out, do what you're paid for: go explore other energy sources: adjust to new situations or give you seat to someone who can do that. The intensity of the energy problem diverge per global region. China has only 12 days of coal (70% of her energy demand is generated by coal) in stock and their coal inventories decline currently with an 3 days per month rate (link to article on www.news.com.au), bringing them in serious trouble within 4 months and give sky-rocking coal prices worldwide: they will buy anything for any price. South Africa is already a full year in severe energy shortages (power distribution is simple not 24/24 per day available).
The severe price rise of coal (much more intense than oil) are the forgotten issue in almost all global media. Coal is becoming in rapid speed to most expensive power generation option by the large increasement of coal fired power plants. The North Sea oil output peaked at 2.8m barrels a day in 1999, and last year this output was down by almost 60% on that peak.
Draining the West European economies again with wealth export to foreign nations by their energy imports, like the energy imports also severely already drain the US economy. Although the attached version is still the raw/draft version (the final draw up will be done in the next weeks) I hope you'll enjoy it and learn a lot of it in terms of economic and technological perspectives. Supporting website, videochannel and imagechannel are also in production. Just like Volume II (Action Plan 2008) and Volume III (Finance Model 2008).
In the second half of 2008 there will be a world media tour of several teams of economic / political / environmental / development specialists (World Energy Tour), followed by a global seminar (World Energy Summit). In the first half year of 2009 there will be a global broadcasted Live Energy festival. In the second half year of 2009 both the release of a documentary and a feature movie (as the next phase on the An Inconvenient Truth story). Global Resources Analysis will be published in local languages in almost any country of the world. Several documentary and feature film makers already use it as their script reference. Many universities have put it on their advised booklists for economic, societal and/or governmental programs and use it for special PeakEnergy / PeakEverything lectures and seminars.
Many media are following the successful 'energy special' and 'food special' formula of CNN. Many universities are planning 'global resources', 'global food' and 'global energy' theme days under popular names like 'war on food', 'war on energy' and/or 'war on resources'. Almost every city is initiating a local energy department. Many cities also initiate a food department (like the all already have water departments. Almost each government is planning the initiation of a special dedicated energy department. The Global Resources Analysis report describes the PeakOil / PeakCoal related issues/effects/dangers for companies, households, economies and thereby governments. What will happen with economies (and therefore also with both households and governments that are funded by these economies) if cheap and abundant oil has gone? That PeakOil will change completely our current completely on cheap energy based economy is evident.
You can starting to address both internal (first line) and external (second line) PeakOil related issues/effects/dangers that threatens jobs and investments, just by circulation of this report. Free circulation must be done unchanged. Changed/customized circulation (with an own logo/introduction/foreword and even with own layout/images/text changes could be done low quality digital (fast/cheap) or in high quality print (impressive/representative). If you want to download a more high resolution copy (which is therefore bigger in digital size) than the attached low resolution copy: a more high res copy can be found on www.induscorp.nl/downloads).
With just a simple circulation/forward of the report, you can reduce the internal/external effects of these PeakOil related issues, impacts and dangers. This way severely downsizing the operational risks outside the organization in times of PeakOil / PeakCoal / PeakEverything (also called PeakX). Soren, I hope you like the report, feel free to circulate the report digitally to anyone you wish to do so, or put a copy for download on the web. If you want production of customized layouts/versions, or just the copyrights for own printed/digital customized versions, than contact me so that I can arrange this for you. See this draft as a RFC (Request For Comments). I really like to receive your feedback/comments (also those of the people you maybe forward this report to), so that the GRA2008 improves itself (grows further) during time. Regards, Gijs B. Graafland. P.S. As an example (of both practical impact and the specific solution) of a by PeakOil caused change: Take a quick look at www.growindus.com (fresh food production within/nearby cities, in/after PeakOil).
Jeg sendte dette til min gode ven og kollega, Henning B. Nissen, der altid har interesseret sig varmt for emnet. Og hans svar kom prompte. I løbet af 10 minutter var hans konklusion klar:
Hej Søren,
Peak Oil (eller Peak Energy) og hvorledes dette vil påvirke resten af vores liv (og vore børns) er et emne, der har optaget mig særdeles meget de sidste tre år efter at jeg faldt over en præsentation av Matt Simmons på: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Den nævnte rapport er ren hyggelæsning sammenlignet med dem, der forsøger at vurdere, hvad energimanglen vil komme til at betyde i praksis: "the end of civilisation as we know it - and in our time" Jeg er desværre enig i den konklusion og tror, at vi har passeret det materielle toppunkt og er permanent på vej mod dårligere og dårligere tider. Det kan vi tag en snak om en sen aften - eller flere. Der ikke så meget vi kan gøre ved det - andet end at lægge sine investereringer i energi- og fødevareforetagender og håbe, at det giver kroner til at eksistere for i en verden, hvor alt bliver dyrt og knapt. Det er utopisk at tænke sig , at det olie og kul, der kan graves op, ikke vil brugt lige så hurtigt, som den kan graves på - uanset hvad der besluttes politisk. Og så er det ligegyldigt om man benytter eufemismen "CO2 reduktion" eller skifter over til at tale om det samme og virkelige problem: energimangel. Hvordan tror du at de trafikinvesteringer der besluttes i dag (bro til Tyskland, udvidelse af lufthave, etc) ser ud om få år. Det er fejlinvesteringer, som man vil ryste på hovedet af om ganske få år. Men der er lang vej for at få politikerne til at melde ud med realistiske planer, da disse for at have en minimal effekt, skal være meget drastiske.
Regeringens grundlag for trafikprognoserne opererer eksempelvis med oliepriser for i dag, der er under halvdelen af hvad de rent faktisk er og om 30 år stadig er billigere end de er i dag. Det er mest sandsynligt, at der om 30 år ikke har været olie til privatbilisme i 20 år, hvilket betyder, at det er ligegyldigt, hvad prisen er set fra en bilists synspunkt. - der er meget lidt trafik - og trafikken er skiftet tilbage til tog og skibe. De, skal køre en mejetærsker og købe kunstgødning, skal sikkert betale mindst 1000 $/barrel i stedet for dagens 124 $/barrel. 1000 $ burde allerede i dag betragtes som billigt i betragtning af oliens reelle værdi. I dag koster en kop olie under 1 krone - kan du købe andet flydende, som du kan hælde op i en kop og som er billigere - citronsodavand, øl, espresso, etc? - næh.
Og så taler vi den mest energirige og uundværlige væske som findes, som er stærkt efterspurgt og har en begrænset mængde, er en forudsætning for fødevareproduktion, for den fortsatte eksistens af de fattigste 4-5 milliarder mennesker, etc. Dagens oliepris er således latterlig lille - og den bliver med garanti snart meget højere. Hvordan tror du eksempelvis at finansvæsenet kommer til at fungere, når det erkendes bredt, at den økonomiskeaktivitet med 100% garanti er mindre det næste år end indeværende år? - og dette fortsætter i al fremtid. Jeg er i hvert fald ikke investor og ønsker ikke at låne penge ud - hvordan skulle værdierne til tilbagebetaling kunne skabes? Det system bryder totalt sammen.
Et par links om emnet http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php
og et mere eksotisk http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html
og du kan af mig låne en ret god video om Peak Oil, hvis du tror du ikke mister modet helt af dette Dong har et spændende projekt med elbiler, "Project Better Place", http://www.projectbetterplace.com/ men det ændrer ikke ved at bilerne skal produceres og at olie indgår i alle led af produktionen - og at olien måske skal reserveres til andre formål (politi, militær, fødevareproduktion)
Der er stof til mange dages filosoferen i dette emne - men det kræver unægteligt et optimistisk sindelag at beskæftige sig med emnet.
Med venlig hilsen,
Henning B. Nissen
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